Behold! Your 2014 FIFA World Champions

Thus far, these twentieth FIFA World Cup Finals have been the most watchable in getting on for two generations. By far the best since 1986; threatening to turn into one of the all-time great sporting tournaments.

Costa Rica seeing off two former World Champions and qualifying first from a Group of Death also featuring another. The World Champions and winners of three major competitions on the bounce dumped out on their backsides by blistering Dutch and Chilean displays.

Costa Rica: a sensational early story of this tournament

Freewheeling France going goal crazy; a heroic performance from the USA, somehow holding off Ghana against all logic in Natal; Colombia playing with such beauty and innocence that to watch them is to witness a team reliving a collective childhood.

A contest for the purists between Italy and England; one for Garra par excellence between Uruguay and England; Iran astonishing everyone with their resistance against Argentina; individual, match-winning brilliance from two extraordinary footballers vying for the tag of greatest in the world: Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi.

And two breathtaking, magnificently intense, exhilarating matches for the ages: Holland 3-2 Australia in Porto Alegre; Germany 2-2 Ghana in Fortaleza, the fancied Germans somehow fighting their way back and almost winning it against inspired opponents. Both protagonists, like two prize fighters, were out on their feet by the end.

So far, this tournament’s been so good that even a goalless draw – between Brazil and Mexico in Fortaleza – scaled the heights: a thoroughly engrossing watch in which Mexico’s organisation and composure were simply perfect, and the hosts were happy to escape from with a point.

Mexico’s success – with 4 points on the board, they need just a draw against Croatia to take them through – has formed part of an early pattern: in which CONCACAF have performed magnificently, with only the volatile Hondurans letting the confederation down. The globalisation of world football continues: standards rising across the board, the gap between the so-called elite and the rest has never been smaller.

Mexico are one of three CONCACAF representatives to have been magnificent thus far

All of that is greatly to the credit of FIFA, the game’s oft maligned governing body. Since Joao Havelange succeeded Sir Stanley Rous as President in 1974, FIFA have pursued a specific policy of funding and growing the game all over the world.

The World Cup Finals were expanded from 16, to 24, then to 32 teams; more places were provided for Africa, Asia, North and Central America; and in the USA in 1994, Japan and Korea in 2002, and South Africa in 2010, the flagship tournament was taken away from the football’s traditional heartlands: nourishing it in wholly new environs, planting seeds which, in the US’ case especially, but elsewhere too, have grown with remarkable speed.

Joao Havelange began the great globalisation of football

To be clear: had the leadership of the governing body remained in European hands, there is no chance that football would have been expanded around the world to anything like the extent that it has. But sadly, there are very good reasons why FIFA is criticised so often; and this tournament is about to expose them once again. I would argue: to an extent never before known on the world stage. The trouble is that only a few people will even notice.

As well as the extraordinary improvement of nations such as Costa Rica, there’s another reason – a very important one – why both Uruguay and Italy were vanquished. Climate and scheduling. And as the knock-out stages will reveal, this scheduling is not, I’m afraid, at all coincidental. It is specifically designed to favour two countries in particular, and destroy the chances of most of their rivals.

Both sweltering heat and a brutal schedule did for Italy in Recife

Ahead of the draw in December, four European countries (Spain, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland) were in the top 7 of FIFA’s World Rankings; and therefore certain to be seeded alongside hosts Brazil and three of their CONMEBOL confreres: Argentina, Colombia and Uruguay. But with 13 teams qualifying from UEFA, this left an odd team out: expected to be thrust into Pot 3, and given a hugely difficult group.

The precedent from 2006 – and indeed, from how the European play-offs had been seeded – was that as the lowest ranked UEFA qualifier, France would have to endure that fate. But just two days before the draw, Frenchman Jerome Valcke, General Secretary of FIFA (in which his compatriot, UEFA President Michel Platini, enjoys a substantial power base), announced an unexpected change. Now, one European team at random would simply be drawn out into one of the groups headed by someone from South America.

The result? Italy, France’s biggest rivals in the sport, who’d only missed being seeded by a fraction, and whose manager, Cesare Prandelli, had complained bitterly of the scorching conditions at the Confederations Cup and – on the eve of the draw, no less – begged FIFA to implement mandatory water breaks at this tournament, found themselves dumped into a group featuring two fellow former World Champions.

The moment that Italian hopes nosedived

But this was only the start of their problems. The Azzurri were also allotted an absurd fixture schedule of England in Manaus in draining humidity; Costa Rica in Recife in a 1pm oven; Uruguay in Natal in another 1pm oven. None of their Group D rivals were given such a demanding fixture list – the Three Lions were allocated two games in the cooler south, La Celeste one, Los Ticos one – but Italy were allowed no respite at all.

Should, by some chance, Prandelli’s team somehow scramble through this, they will then meet the Group C winners, Colombia: but Los Cafeteros have had two matches in Belo Horizonte and Brasilia, and can now rest key players ahead of a last 16 meeting with exhausted opponents in Rio. This is likely to make an enormous difference.

The jubilant Colombians will be well rested ahead of the 2nd round

What, though, of the Italians’ fellow traditional European superpower? What of Germany: France’s second fiercest rivals in international football? By some utterly unfathomable coincidence, Die Mannschaft also found themselves landed with a horrendous draw and brutal schedule: Portugal at 1pm in sultry Salvador; Ghana at 4pm in the Fortalezan furnace; the USA at 1pm in roasting Recife.

At least Group G only features one match in the south: Portugal-Ghana in Brasilia on Thursday, meaning that its schedule is not as wildly unbalanced and plain unfair as Group D’s. But only Germany’s ironclad powers of self-belief and indomitability enabled them to survive yesterday against Ghana; and the energy such a riproaring game will have taken out of them will, I’m quite sure, count strongly against them later in the tournament.

Only Germany’s phenomenal levels of self-belief rescued them yesterday

Joachim Loew’s men – who, were this tournament being held either in Europe, or amidst a fixture schedule which is not so ludicrously loaded against certain nations, would, I believe, win it with something to spare – aren’t yet through. They could even, in theory at least, be eliminated on Thursday against the USA.

This means that Loew will not be able to rest key stars in the manner of, say, Argentina or Colombia; and leaves his players likely to be drained ahead of the knock-out stages: which is when contending teams need to pick up steam and grow step by step. Indeed, I anticipate Loew shuffling his pack and utilising his squad quite heavily for the likely 2nd round meeting with the Group H runners-up in Brasilia: trusting that certain reserve players can see Germany through to the quarter-finals, and a meeting with infinitely fresher, more rested opponents.

If his side are somehow to win the World Cup, Joachim Loew will now be tested as never before

Who will those opponents be? France. The nation expected to be punished for a series of appalling efforts in qualification by being given a very difficult group; the nation whose compatriots head the European governing body, and supervised the draw itself. Somehow, Les Bleus were instead handed a dream draw of Honduras, Switzerland and Ecuador, and only one match in the north: not against Latin American opponents used to hotter climates, but by some amazing chance, the only opponents who would find Salvador much more difficult than they would. The Swiss.

The moment French hopes skyrocketed

Naturellement, Didier Deschamps’ rejuvenated side have cruised through: looking awfully impressive in the process. And after a laughably soft group, generally in easy conditions, what awaits them next? Another laughably soft opponent from Group F, again in easy conditions: Nigeria, almost certainly, in Brasilia.

Put simply, France were handed a cakewalk to the quarter-finals, with no climatic issues to contend with at all; Germany were given one fraught with peril, with many to confront and be weighed down by. Will this prove decisive if their much anticipated quarter-final meeting transpires? It might well do so, yes.

Making the most of their ridiculously easy draw, France have looked mightily impressive

Elsewhere in the draw, Spain, Chile and Holland were always liable to cut each other’s throats in Group B. The ageing Spaniards simply went under instead; but the Oranje’s all-singing, all-dancing, cavalier counter-attacking is highly unlikely to meet with such success in Fortaleza in round 2, or (if they’re still standing by then, which I very much doubt), Salvador in the last 8.

Should the Dutch avoid defeat by Chile and win Group B, most commentators will project a clear path through to the semi-finals; but most commentators will be wrong. Like Italy and probably Germany, the Netherlands are another team who will ultimately be defeated by the conditions. Should they somehow survive as far as the last four, they’ll be drained, shattered… and will be swept away by their opponents as a broom does dust.

The Dutch have looked marvellous so far – but the conditions are going to do for them

And those opponents – who as far as I’m concerned, are as good as in the Final already? Argentina. Why are they as good as in the Final already? Their draw, their schedule… and above all, their association’s President.

Julio Grondona has been head of the AFA since 1979: a record-breaking time period for any association President anywhere in the world. During that time, he’s survived all manner of scandals at home, and become the true power behind the throne as FIFA’s Senior Vice-President: standing full square behind first Havelange, then Sepp Blatter.

As so many others – Ricardo Teixeira, Nicolas Leoz, Jack Warner, Chuck Blazer, Mohamed bin Hammam, even Havelange – have fallen by the wayside; and the likes of Franz Beckenbauer and, very recently, even Platini, have become isolated, Grondona has survived: propping up the horrendously tarnished Blatter, who now seems likely to win yet another term as FIFA President. And this tournament is payback time.

It’s payback time for Don Julio

What is it that Argentinians dream of more than anything in the world? Winning the World Cup in the backyard of their greatest rivals. What is it that they (and, more than likely, FIFA) are desperate to do? Crown Messi as the Greatest Of All Time.

What is it that, after two decades of failure from the national team which his association oversees, Grondona desperately needs; and would crown his epic period of time at the helm, as well as give new life to Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s hopelessly incompetent government, which has frequently been highly indulgent of Grondona’s excesses? A third world title for the Albiceleste.

Cui bono? Crissy and Julio, that’s who; as well, of course, as Blatter, who’ll continue to enjoy Grondona’s unswerving support.

Isn’t it great when a plan comes together?

Have a look at Groups B, D and G: stacked with heavyweight nations, with many games played in the sweltering north of Brazil. Then have a look at France’s laughably soft path; then turn your attention to Argentina. Their draw is, quite literally, unbelievable.

Bosnia, Iran, Nigeria: an extraordinarily weak series of opponents, all faced in the wintry south in comfortable conditions. But it’s afterwards that things become truly absurd.

Next up for Argentina? African Champions Nigeria

First, not one of their knock-out games will be played away from the south either. Second, EVERY SINGLE ONE of their knock-out games except the final itself will almost certainly be against opponents who’ll have just played in the north, expending huge energy in the process.

It is at least conceivable that Ecuador could provide their opponents in the last 16: La Tri need to match or better Switzerland’s result in order to progress, but as they’re up against the rampant French in Rio, it will be a very tall order. But if, as is more likely, Ottmar Hitzfeld’s men advance… they’ll face Argentina having just met Honduras in, of all places, the nightmarishly difficult Manaus.

No wonder Ottmar Hitzfeld looks depressed

In the quarter-finals, their most likely opponents will be Belgium. Sounds difficult and dangerous, right? Except that the Red Devils will first have to overcome very dangerous Group G opponents in Salvador: a venue which has enjoyed an extraordinary 17 goals in just 3 matches. That second round tie has rip-roaring thriller and possible upset written all over it; unlike Argentina’s absolute walk in the park.

Belgium will be much more tired than Argentina should they face them in the quarters

And really, that quarter-final will be as difficult as it’s likely to get for Alejandro Sabella’s side. Because, point three: have a look at how the draw is shaping up now. Heading into the top half of the knock-out stage as things stand are Brazil, Germany, France, Colombia, Chile and either Italy or Uruguay: ready to exhaust and cut each other’s throats before someone (still, most likely, the hosts), totters into the final.

And in the bottom half? Argentina, Holland, Belgium… and no-one else. No-one who anyone would’ve taken seriously as contenders before the tournament. I’ve already explained why I believe the Dutch to be doomed, and probable roadkill even if they make the last four – but if they don’t (and assuming Louis Van Gaal’s men don’t lose Group B to Chile), Argentina are – get this – going to face a World Cup semi-final against one of… Mexico, Costa Rica, or even Cote d’Ivoire.

If the extraordinary way in which the bottom half is beckoning the Albiceleste towards the final represents the icing on Grondona’s cake, what their semi-final opponents will have already been through is the cherry on top. While Argentina stay in the south, their opponents will have played in Salvador in the last 8; and either Fortaleza or Recife in the last 16. It is, as I say, truly unbelievable.

To recap:

1. A joke of a group.
2. A joke of a knock-out stage draw.
3. Almost all their major rivals heading for the other half of the draw.
4. All cool, easy venues for the Albiceleste.
5. All hot, difficult venues for all their opponents in the previous match(es).

Coincidence? Luck of the draw? Don’t make me laugh. It is impossible, literally impossible, for a side to be gifted so many advantages by a World Cup draw by accident. This has happened by design; as, I believe, it has with France; as it also has against Italy, Germany and others. There is no other possible explanation for a draw which, to be frank, is as good as rigged.

And more to the point: given that FIFA have proven themselves again and again as the most openly, demonstrably corrupt organisation anywhere in world sport – in fact, you might argue, anywhere in the world, period – this body is least worthy of the benefit of the doubt as any I can think of.

In light of everything that’s already occurred under Blatter and Havelange’s watch, the crazy suggestion is that they WOULDN’T manipulate things in such a way; not that they would. To put it another way: some of us weren’t born yesterday.

In the days following the draw, a video appeared on the internet which seemed to show precisely the manipulation which I’ve just described. In the clip, Valcke is shown appearing to open each ball handed to him by various famous former players, containing the names of the participating countries.

Yet in a number of cases, his left hand actually moves in front of him, seemingly to pick up a piece of paper out of sight of the audience, the cameras, and indeed of the players. He then holds this paper up as if it has come from the ball – when in fact it has not. Simply watch the video below and judge for yourself:

If what is contained in the video is as it seems, this was the conjuror’s trick to end all conjuror’s tricks: a feat of daring stupefying in its magnitude. But after a draw which whizzed by at a pace I’ve never known any other World Cup draw to do, can anything else possibly explain the circumstances I’ve set out above?

To make matters even more suspicious: one day before the draw, the FraudeMundial14 Twitter page not only appears to have exactly predicted Argentina’s group stage draw; but also that Italy would be the unlucky European team dumped into a group of death. Coincidence? Dear reader: you be the judge.

Grupo del Mundial: Argentina, Nigeria, Iran, Bosnia #FifaFraude

— Brasil 2014 Fraude (@FraudeMundial14) December 5, 2013

El pais sorteado del Bombo 4 que pasara a ser parte del Bombo 2 sera Italia #FifaFraude

— Brasil 2014 Fraude (@FraudeMundial14) December 5, 2013

In fairness, Fernanda Lima, standing to Valcke’s right, does seem to allocate the venues for each team in an entirely legitimate way. Given the impossibly easy schedules which greeted certain highly convenient participants, the impossibly difficult ones which greeted certain others, this aspect of proceedings leaves me, I must acknowledge, completely baffled – but then, FIFA have been baffling observers all over the world for decades. And much more importantly: getting away with it with impunity.

What’s more: they’ll get away with it this time too. Around the world, most World Cup watchers don’t pay much attention to the draw, or the weather conditions, or the whole host of machinations I’ve set out in this article. All they want to see is exciting football.

Thus – because fiery Fortaleza is a marvellous leveller – yesterday’s game between Germany and Ghana was rightly hailed; and if, as I very much anticipate, Holland crash out in the heat before the semi-finals, much nonsense will be written about the Dutch having choked yet again. In fact, they’ll have been choked by a rigged draw.

Holland won’t only have themselves to blame this time. They’ll have FIFA to blame instead

And it also means two other things. First, many who read this will laugh and say: “Argentina – are you crazy? They’ve looked terrible! Iran could have beaten them!” Except that Iran didn’t beat them, or draw with them; Iran – surprise, surprise – had a clear penalty not given; and crucially, despite playing appallingly, the Albiceleste are already into the last 16 without taking much out of themselves, and need only a point against Nigeria to top the group.

Contrast this with what Germany, Italy or Uruguay all still have ahead of them: a scenario which will obtain well into the knock-out stages.

A massive task awaits Italy and Uruguay. Unlike Argentina or France

And second: the history of the World Cup is littered with sides who started slowly, only to grow step by step as the event developed. Thus in much the same manner as Spain four years ago, the stage is set for Argentina – who can hardly play any worse than they did in their first two games – to ease their way gradually through the tournament, benefiting each and every time from facing already exhausted opponents.

But most observers won’t even be conscious of the latter point. Most observers will simply laud a tournament team and their genius star player peaking at the right time and deservedly making off with the spoils. That’s how the history books will be written. Anything else will be treated as froth, nonsense and conspiracy theories: which is partly why I’m making a point of setting all this out now, before anyone accuses me of sour grapes afterwards. I’m employing foresight here, not hindsight.

When – not if, but when – this man’s country wins the World Cup, no-one will pay much attention to how it was done

None of this, incidentally, is to negate any of Italy’s clueless beyond belief decision to base themselves in Rio, and therefore face long flight after long flight after long flight; Uruguay’s equally clueless failure to embark on no warm weather training at all (instead, La Celeste’s two pre-tournament friendlies were comically staged in the freezing, wet conditions of Montevideo); or the wonderful football and enormous progress made by a number of Central and South American sides: Costa Rica foremost amongst them.

But in Fortaleza against the Ticos, Uruguay simply withered on the vine. Why? The conditions first and foremost. And against the same opponents, Italy saw Recife… and died. Why? The conditions first and foremost again.

The conditions, as much as anything else, did for Uruguay in Fortaleza

I cannot emphasise enough how different it is playing in the north or the south of Brazil. It’s not like playing in two different countries, but two different continents: one in mid-summer, the other in winter. Sides used to hot weather will and already are prospering; sides not used to it will and already are suffering horribly.

What does this mean for Tuesday’s showdown in Natal between La Celeste and the Azzurri? Both teams will struggle; but Uruguay go into the contest having just resurrected their campaign in cool Sao Paulo. Italy go into it having just floundered in Recife. This favours Uruguay: no question.

But before La Celeste’s already buoyant followers become too excited, sadly, the road ahead is going to become impossibly mountainous. If Italy scramble through on Tuesday, they’ll be so exhausted by all they’ll have already experienced that they’ll go under against fresh, rested Colombia for sure.

This charming lady will be smiling broadly if Colombia face Italy in round 2

If Uruguay do, they might just have enough Garra about them to scrape past Jose Pekerman’s vibrant side in – praise be! – the Maracana; but then they’d run into Brazil. Not in Rio, but in Fortaleza: with no warm weather training behind them, at a venue which this side’s gruelling style of play (which will have already taken huge amounts out of them over their preceding matches) will not be able to handle at all. Adios.

Reminder: Uruguay’s embarrassing capitulation to Spain at the Confederations Cup was in Recife. Their narrow defeat to Brazil was in Belo Horizonte. This wasn’t a coincidence.

Best case scenario for Uruguay now? Defeat by Brazil in the quarter-finals

Incidentally: what of Brazil? What will happen to them? Many have been so underwhelmed that an unthinkable second round exit is being forecast: but this reasons without the way in which Luiz Felipe Scolari’s men grew into the Confederations Cup last year; without the chronic inferiority complex which Chile always exhibit against them without fail; and the refereeing decisions which have already cushioned O Selecao’s path: and if necessary, will continue to do so.

So far, the officials have turned a draw at best against Croatia into a victory; and by disallowing two good Mexican goals versus Cameroon, left Brazil on course to top the group despite only drawing with El Tri. Almost unnoticed to most, Scolari wasn’t actually that bothered about beating Mexico; a point would be enough, so a point was what he held onto.

The realism of this man will enable his side to grow into the tournament

At a time when their elimination would spell violence and chaos across the country, the idea that Brazil won’t be beneficiaries of similar decisions well into the knock-out stage is, again, the crazy one. Like Argentina, they’ll grow into the tournament; also like them, they’ll be favoured where necessary. Up until the semi-finals as a minimum; probably all the way to the final itself.

Just in case any naysayers remain, perhaps we should remind ourselves of Teixeira’s words. In 2011, the now disgraced former World Cup Organising Committee Chairman – who became head of the CBF by virtue of being Havelange’s son-in-law – had these chilling comments to proffer:

In 2014 I’ll be able to get away with anything. The most slippery, unthinkable, machiavellian things… And you know what? Nothing will happen.

“In 2014, I’ll be able to get away with anything”

Before I finish, there is one thing I want to make clear. This is not a complaint about the World Cup being played in hot conditions, or in South America, or anything else so absurd. This has been a wonderful tournament thus far: which has already exceeded all expectations.

The complaint is simple: at any sporting tournament, conditions must be as fair and equal as possible for all. Draws must not be manipulated or tampered with; no powerful individual should be able to influence the outcome of the greatest sporting competition of all; the tournament should be about finding and crowning the best team, not helping them every step of the way.

But the 2014 FIFA World Cup is, sadly, about none of those things. It’s about two countries being helped, most others stuffed; about complete contempt for the natural justice of competition on the part of as corrupt an organisation which international sport has ever known.

This man’s country is being helped by a joke of a draw

At the end of it all, the Final will be between Argentina and either Brazil (most probably: say a 60% chance); France (reasonable chance: say 30%); or Germany (just conceivably, but it’s a monumental, surely insurmountable ask: 10% at most). All those of us opposed to FIFA’s continually monstrous behaviour should hope that Loew’s men can somehow defy the odds.

But no matter: for against exhausted opponents, in what will probably be their first semi-proper test of the entire competition, Argentina will win their third world title. Not so much through their own abilities, but through others being disgracefully handicapped.

FIFA is the house. And no mere footballers can beat it.

You just can’t beat it